As I read through the economic articles, suddenly a lot of negativity has creeped in. It is really interesting to read the economic articles,even though I dont know how much they are helpful to me day to day. But it gives a sense of feel of about what to expect. From what I read, PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) in europe, and Argentia are going to be bankrupt sooner or later which will expose the debts the goverments are in. If that happens then currency is going to be hit harder and they will devalue their currency which will result in higher prices. Or Govt can print money and solve debt which also going to result in the samething. Only way out looks like tightening the Govt's purses and increasing the taxes. US is still in a bad situation with lots of the Govt revenue being used to serve up the interest of its' debts. China is also looking at tightening the monetary situationa and slowsly withdraw stimulus. In India people are talking abou increasing interest rates and revoking the fiscal measures.
So it is not joyous situation to be in. As an optimist always, I dont believe in a armageddon and that can only happen on the mind's of hollywood directors. There may be sluggish or NIL growth but definitely not a rush to the bottom. Markets may slowly sink and comeback more slowly. Last time when bubble burst, I remember very well that for 3 months no one bought anything and inventories were literally dried up. Which pused higher growth in the following quarters. From whatever I see people are not going to panic and completely stop buying things as they did during melt down. Since everyone just event through recession and they realize that things will be ok after a while, completely stopping to spend is not going to happen and that is my guess...
Thursday, February 11, 2010
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